Weeks after Shinzo Abe’s surprise resignation for health reasons, Yoshihide Suga made history by becoming the first LDP leader (and, as such, Japan’s Prime Minister) who did not belong to a party faction or a political elite family. This is not his only difference from his predecessors and, while his cabinet is largely similar to the previous government, his mandate will probably not be a mere continuity of the Abe era.
In his run for election as the LDP leader, Mr. Suga was supported by five of seven major factions within the party. The reason why they preferred him over the other two candidates was, they wanted to maintain stability until the next general election, and he was the most likely to offer that stability.
However, the new Prime Minister (and former Chief Cabinet Secretary) seems to have a slightly different agenda. When announcing his candidacy, he stressed that he would focus on the same objectives that Shinzo Abe had pursued but he also added “I want to break down bureaucratic sectionalism, vested interests and the blind adherence to precedent”. Suganomics may be different from Abenomics in that he aims to stimulate the economy through efficiency gains achieved with structural reforms. One might note that this was the “third arrow” in Abe-san’s plan, and one that moved too slowly, although in the right direction.
Suga-san may not be as eloquent as his predecessor, but his is skilled at conveying messages. He assured the population that he was ready to tackle the most urgent issues, ie fight the Covid-19 pandemic and restart the economy. The new Prime Minister is also known as a man of his word, who will only promise what he intends to do and can do. By keeping the government largely unchanged, he made sure that his team could go straight to work and carry a strategic message.
Among the new appointments, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, Katsunobu Kato, used to be a bureaucrat himself, and is deeply familiar with the departments involved in the health crisis and the economic stimulus. Taro Kono, formely the Defense Minister and now in charge of Administrative Reform, is known for his candid remarks and his ability to make quick decisions. The two of them together might be able to breakdown bureaucratic sectionalism while skillfully manipulating the bureaucrats. Meanwhile, a new Ministry of Digital Reform was created, which is positive as Japan’s lag in digitalization hindered the response to the Covid-19 crisis.
The new Prime Minister’s weakness appears to be his lack of experience in diplomacy, but it is fair to say that he will be well surrounded. The Defense Ministry goes to Shinzo Abe’s brother Nobuo Kishi, another new comer whose appointment seems to have a major significance. He is known as pro-Taiwan, and his appointment looks like an indication that the Suga cabinet aims to continue Japan’s long alliance with the USA. Meanwhile, Suga-san also secured a strong relationship with China (and Korea) with the appointment of Toshihiro Nikai as the leading party’s Secretary General. Mr. Nikai is considered to be the Japanese politician with the strongest relationship with China. Shinzo Abe may also remain a diplomatic “wild card” in the hands of his successor.
A post-election survey by the Nikkei newspaper shows that, against our expectations, the Suga cabinet benefits from a very high support rate: at 74%, it beats that of Shinzo Abe’s second tenure in 2012, and gets close to the 80% rate reached by the Koizumi government in 2001. Some observers believe that Suga-san might use the opportunity to dissolve the Diet and hold a snap election. He did not rule out this option, but hinted he would not favor it when he stressed his intention to focus on resolving problems and working from day one.
If the general election remains on its initial schedule, it will take place in September 2021. This is certainly a short time frame to do everything that needs to be done, and even to demonstrate one’s capabilities. Will Japan return to its history of “revolving door” premierships?
KH – September 21, 2020