Although 2020 is an election year in the USA, the media coverage of the Presidential race has become quite thin outside the country, as the pandemic is getting the whole available attention. Yet, the campaign is supposed to be going on, and we thought an update might be useful.
The situation is clearer on the Democratic side
This is no recent news, but you might have missed it as it happened while the Covid-19 spread was peaking in Europe: Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign, and then backed rival Joe Biden in the Democratic Party’s candidate designation process. Unless something totally unexpected happens before fall, Barack Obama’s former Vice-President will be Donald Trump’s competitor in the election.
No, the US President’s popularity is not falling…
The media often report that Donald Trump’s poor management of the pandemic and his weird comments about the disease and its treatments had harmed his support rate. They probably picked their timing or their sources very carefully to be able to say that, because the trend in average poll results clearly points to a different picture. Admittedly, more Americans disapprove than approve the President’s action, but this has always been the case since early 2017. According to an average of multiple polls monitored by Real Clear Politics, the gap peaked in December of that same year and has been trending down regularly, although in a volatile manner, ever since. While, six months ago, it was still 10.7 (54.3% negative vs 43.6% positive), it was down to 5.1 (51.5% vs 46.4%) less than a week ago, before widening again recently.
… and Biden’s lead in election-focused polls is eroding slowly
For what they are worth, these polls currently suggest that Biden would lead over Trump by 5.5 percentage points (48.4% vs 42.9%). Over the recent months, this gap peaked at 7.4 percentage points in March, and was falling at an accelerated pace until the last few days. The Democratic candidate’s campaign is almost inaudible during the lockdown, except on the occasion of his regular communication mistakes: the latest one, a few days ago, led him to compare the choice of a potential Vice-President to that of a calendar model. His rival continues to benefit from media coverage, even though he doesn’t always make the best use of it.
In conclusion, this illustrates that another source of uncertainty is still in the pipe for the US market behind the coronavirus. Opinion polls have always been moderately reliable for US Presidential elections, and this one might be particularly tight. We have got another six months to go before we know if bettors are right (odds clearly point to a Trump victory), but the special election held a few days ago in California’s 25th District (which ended with a Republican victory in one of the most Democrat states) is another sign that the game is open.
HG, May 22, 2020