{"id":2625,"date":"2019-08-28T17:16:44","date_gmt":"2019-08-28T16:16:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.graphene-investments.com\/?p=2625\/"},"modified":"2019-08-30T15:06:06","modified_gmt":"2019-08-30T14:06:06","slug":"is-the-us-yield-curve-predicting-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.graphene-investments.com\/en\/is-the-us-yield-curve-predicting-a-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the US yield curve predicting a recession ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>There has not been a single day this summer without some sort of media comment like &#8220;investors are scared by the inversion of the yield curve&#8221; or &#8220;every inversion of the yield curve was followed by a recession within two years&#8221;. This calls a few short comments:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While ackowledging that an inverted yield curve is neither normal nor desirable, one should keep in mind that this inversion is just a reflection of fixed-income investors&#8217; anticipations about the economy and, subsequently, the monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>By the way, we find it strange that, when it comes to assessing the economic outlook, economists, strategists and equity investors unanimously consider that bond investors&#8217; opinion is much more reliable than their own&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Finally, to put things in perspective since the latest expansion phase has been unusually long, let&#8217;s not forget that the frequency of typical economic cycles is such that a lot of events have a high probability of being followed by a recession within two years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>When professionals come to look at the yield curve as a way of predicting the economy, without realizing that rates just reflect their peers&#8217; anticipation about that economy, one has gotten a perfect ground for excessive reactions and self-fulfilling prophecies.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There has not been a single day this summer without some sort of media comment like &#8220;investors are scared by the inversion of the yield curve&#8221; or &#8220;every inversion of the yield curve was followed by a recession within two years&#8221;. This calls a few short comments: While ackowledging that an inverted yield curve is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[103],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-think_different"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the US yield curve predicting a recession ? - Graphene Investments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the US yield curve predicting a recession ? - Graphene Investments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There has not been a single day this summer without some sort of media comment like &#8220;investors are scared by the inversion of the yield curve&#8221; or &#8220;every inversion of the yield curve was followed by a recession within two years&#8221;. 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